xG – Penalties for United and the League

As of the winter break 2020, United have an xG – penalties figure of 31.8. To explain xG, it is a metric that rates every shot taken in a game, and calculates the chance of that shot being converted into a goal. It is found by using historical data of similar shots. United have so far placed 7th in the league for xG – penalties, just behind Everton. In simple terms, the quality and quantity of the shots we have fashioned this season means we should have scored the 7th most goals in the league; bearing in mind this is all calculated excluding penalties. With penalties included, our xG is 38.6 (5th in the league). United have scored 36 goals (which is actually 6th most in the league, 1 place below expected), so are under performing compared to their xG by 2.6 goals over the entirety of the season thus far. This is largely down to the fact we have taken 9 penalties, but missed 4. Each penalty has an xG of 0.76, so 4 penalties missed is 3.04, bridging the gap between our actual goals and expected goals.

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